Labour markets continue to tighten in Alberta, with Statistics Canada announcing in its monthly labour force survey that the province added more than 10,000 jobs in November. That dropped Alberta’s unemployment rate down to 4.2 per cent, the lowest in Canada.
On a national basis, an impressive 59,000 new jobs were created in November. Ontario and Quebec were the biggest contributors, adding 32,000 and 18,000 jobs, respectively. British Columbia, which has seen its jobs engine sputtering of late, lagged the rest of the country, posting job losses of 4,700.
On a year-over-year basis, Alberta has added 38,900 jobs, and there is no sign yet that the job creation engine is stalling.
In the U.S. meanwhile, 146,000 new jobs were created last month, well above consensus projections. But the headline number may not be as bullish as it sounds. Here’s what senior economist Avery Shenfeld at CIBC World Markets had to say about today’s U.S. and Canadian payroll reports:
On the U.S. payrolls report:
“U.S. payrolls beat expectations, but the divergence was not as impressive as it looks on the surface. The gain of 146,000 in payrolls was offset by a -49,000 cumulative revision to the prior two months, leaving the level of payrolls for November essentially in line with consensus. And even the November gain wasn’t that strong, since most forecasters had been expecting a softer number only due to impacts from Sandy, which the BLS says did not in fact have a material impact on the count. The data included a gain of 53,000 retail jobs that may have been helped by the earlier than usual Thanksgiving date, pushing up hiring for Black Friday. As in Canada, goods industry employment edged slightly lower. The drop in the unemployment rate to 7.7% owed to a reduction in the number of Americans actively looking for work, as the household survey actually showed a decline in employment for the month. While the initial reaction has been bullish for equities and negative for bonds, we could see some rethinking of that view as analysts pour over the less-supportive details in the report.”
Shenfeld’s comments on the Canadian payrolls report:
“When it rains it pours, as Canadian employment rebounded from a drought with a strong gain in November that suggests that the third quarter economic slumber did not portend something worse for the final trimester of the year. While these numbers are choppy, the gain of 59,000 positions, nearly all of which were full time, took the unemployment rate back down two ticks to 7.2%, reversing most of the earlier upswing. Less desirable was that the jobs were all in the service sector, led by wholesale/retail trade and hospitality, two lower paying sectors, although there were good gains for professional services as well. Industries tied to the strength of the business cycle like manufacturing and construction shed jobs in the month, and the latter is now down on a year on year basis. Still, the report represented a splash of good news that has been in short supply in recent months. Supportive for the Canadaian dollar and negative for fixed income assets as a result.”
